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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Malcolm Gordon won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1491

Francisco FigueiredovsMalcolm GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · Saturday, July 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Malcolm Gordon won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Figueiredo: WrestlervsMalcolm Gordon: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Francisco Figueiredo wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Malcolm Gordon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Figueiredo at -310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Malcolm Gordon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francisco Figueiredo threatens submissions; Malcolm Gordon has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Francisco Figueiredo has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Francisco Figueiredo has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Malcolm Gordon (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Figueiredo

Red Corner

Malcolm Gordon

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1495

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Figueiredo

oldest →

vs Jerome Rivera · Jan 21

SUBvs Daniel Lacerda · Apr 22

SUBvs Amir Albazi · Aug 22

latest

Malcolm GordonL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Su Mudaerji · Nov 20

KOvs Denys Bondar · Feb 22

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 22

KOvs Jake Hadley · Mar 23

SUBvs Jimmy Flick · Jan 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco FigueiredoMetricMalcolm Gordon

2.04

Strikes / min

2.50

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.00

61%

Strike defense

43%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

1.72

76%

Takedown defense

26%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco FigueiredoMalcolm Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Figueiredo(4 fights)Malcolm Gordon(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.3|Blue -4.3

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -53.0|Blue +53.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco FigueiredoTargetMalcolm Gordon

By target zone

53% acc · 57%

Head

51% acc · 87%

70% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

56% acc · 64%

Distance

41% acc · 48%

80% acc · 14%

Clinch

71% acc · 11%

75% acc · 21%

Ground

83% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Figueiredo rounds

even

Malcolm Gordon rounds

Round 1Malcolm Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control2:46

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 2Malcolm Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:15

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 3Malcolm Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control1:14

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 45

Sig Strikes

46 / 84

66.3%

Sig Str %

71.7%

52 / 70

Total Strikes

100 / 145

2 / 2

TDs

2 / 11

100%

TD %

13.7%

Sub Att

Rev

4:15

Ctrl Time

6:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Malcolm Gordon	15 / 20	34 / 40	1 / 4
1	Francisco Figueiredo	6 / 8	16 / 19	0 / 0
2	Malcolm Gordon	22 / 55	26 / 59	1 / 6
2	Francisco Figueiredo	20 / 34	20 / 34	0 / 0
3	Malcolm Gordon	9 / 9	40 / 46	0 / 1
3	Francisco Figueiredo	2 / 3	16 / 17	2 / 2

Francisco Figueiredo

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Malcolm Gordon

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7