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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Figueiredo won · U-DEC

Elo1495

Elo1403

Francisco FigueiredovsJerome RiveraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · Wednesday, January 20, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Francisco Figueiredo won

U-DEC

Style matchupFrancisco Figueiredo: WrestlervsJerome Rivera: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jerome Rivera wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Francisco Figueiredo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jerome Rivera at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Figueiredo threatens submissions; Jerome Rivera has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Francisco Figueiredo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Francisco Figueiredo has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Jerome Rivera has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Figueiredo

Red Corner

Jerome Rivera

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1495

Elo

1403

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Figueiredo

oldest →

vs Malcolm Gordon · Jul 21

SUBvs Daniel Lacerda · Apr 22

SUBvs Amir Albazi · Aug 22

latest

Jerome RiveraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Nam · Sep 20

SUBvs Zhalgas Zhumagulov · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco FigueiredoMetricJerome Rivera

2.04

Strikes / min

3.21

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.60

61%

Strike defense

51%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

0.00

76%

Takedown defense

40%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco FigueiredoJerome Rivera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Figueiredo(4 fights)Jerome Rivera(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +92.3|Blue -92.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco FigueiredoTargetJerome Rivera

By target zone

39% acc · 38%

Head

13% acc · 39%

64% acc · 24%

Body

40% acc · 26%

79% acc · 38%

Leg

46% acc · 35%

By position

50% acc · 69%

Distance

20% acc · 71%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

41% acc · 29%

56% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Figueiredo rounds

even

Jerome Rivera rounds

Round 1Francisco Figueiredo edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:21

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Francisco Figueiredo edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:49

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Francisco Figueiredo edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control1:57

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 53

Sig Strikes

31 / 134

54.3%

Sig Str %

23.3%

39 / 65

Total Strikes

85 / 199

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 5

83.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:07

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jerome Rivera	12 / 35	29 / 58	0 / 3
1	Francisco Figueiredo	8 / 17	16 / 27	1 / 1
2	Jerome Rivera	5 / 33	22 / 52	0 / 0
2	Francisco Figueiredo	13 / 18	15 / 20	1 / 1
3	Jerome Rivera	14 / 66	34 / 89	0 / 2
3	Francisco Figueiredo	8 / 18	8 / 18	2 / 4

Francisco Figueiredo

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Jerome Rivera

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3