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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1368

Francis NgannouvsLuis HenriqueUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Saturday, December 19, 2015Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:53

Model Prediction: Francis Ngannou wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Ngannou at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Luis Henrique enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Luis Henrique has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Francis Ngannou has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Francis Ngannou has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Ngannou

Red Corner

Luis Henrique

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1496

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

210.82 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis NgannouW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19

KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21

vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22

latest

Luis HenriqueL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dmitrii Smoliakov · Jul 16

SUBvs Christian Colombo · Nov 16

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 17

vs Arjan Bhullar · Sep 17

vs Ryan Spann · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis NgannouMetricLuis Henrique

2.33

Strikes / min

1.81

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.22

41%

Strike defense

47%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

3.09

71%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francis Ngannou(10 fights)Luis Henrique(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.2|Blue -128.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis NgannouTargetLuis Henrique

By target zone

50% acc · 76%

Head

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 12%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 64%

Distance

56% acc · 100%

100% acc · 16%

Clinch

56% acc · 20%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francis Ngannou rounds

even

Luis Henrique rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:30Control

Round 2Francis Ngannou edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 45

Sig Strikes

5 / 10

55.5%

Sig Str %

45%

40 / 62

Total Strikes

33 / 40

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

4:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luis Henrique	4 / 7	31 / 36	1 / 4
1	Francis Ngannou	13 / 21	21 / 31	0 / 0
2	Luis Henrique	1 / 3	2 / 4	0 / 2
2	Francis Ngannou	12 / 24	19 / 31	0 / 0

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights14

Luis Henrique

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6