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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1496

Elo1393

Francis NgannouvsJunior Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, June 29, 2019Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:11

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Junior Dos Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Francis Ngannou has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Ngannou

Red Corner

Junior Dos Santos

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1496

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

210.82 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis NgannouW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Nov 18

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21

vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22

latest

Junior Dos SantosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 18

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis NgannouMetricJunior Dos Santos

2.33

Strikes / min

4.49

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

41%

Strike defense

56%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

0.30

71%

Takedown defense

81%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17evenly matched on net striking+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francis NgannouJunior Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francis Ngannou(10 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.2|Blue -103.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +20.0|Blue -20.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis NgannouTargetJunior Dos Santos

By target zone

36% acc · 56%

Head

33% acc · 25%

100% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 25%

75% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

42% acc · 56%

Distance

67% acc · 100%

Clinch

57% acc · 44%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francis Ngannou rounds

even

Junior Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Francis Ngannou edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 19

Sig Strikes

4 / 6

47%

Sig Str %

66%

9 / 19

Total Strikes

4 / 6

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Junior Dos Santos	4 / 6	4 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Francis Ngannou	9 / 19	9 / 19	0 / 0	0

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights14

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19