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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1481

Francis NgannouvsDerrick LewisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Saturday, July 7, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derrick Lewis at +255 American odds

+$255 profit

$355 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Francis Ngannou has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Francis Ngannou has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Ngannou

Red Corner

Derrick Lewis

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1496

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

210.82 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis NgannouW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19

KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21

vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22

latest

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis NgannouMetricDerrick Lewis

2.33

Strikes / min

2.46

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

41%

Strike defense

39%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

0.55

71%

Takedown defense

52%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francis NgannouDerrick Lewis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francis Ngannou(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.4|Blue -14.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis NgannouTargetDerrick Lewis

By target zone

18% acc · 64%

Head

4% acc · 5%

50% acc · 27%

Body

61% acc · 55%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

80% acc · 40%

By position

21% acc · 82%

Distance

35% acc · 90%

67% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francis Ngannou rounds

even

Derrick Lewis rounds

Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Francis Ngannou edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 46

Sig Strikes

20 / 54

22%

Sig Str %

34.7%

11 / 46

Total Strikes

20 / 54

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Derrick Lewis	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0
1	Francis Ngannou	1 / 7	1 / 7	0 / 0
2	Derrick Lewis	4 / 15	4 / 15	0 / 1
2	Francis Ngannou	6 / 18	6 / 18	0 / 0
3	Derrick Lewis	11 / 24	11 / 24	0 / 1
3	Francis Ngannou	4 / 21	4 / 21	0 / 0

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights14

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31