← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1495

Francis NgannouvsCurtis BlaydesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · Sunday, April 10, 2016Zagreb, Croatia

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francis Ngannou wins(77.7%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Ngannou at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Curtis Blaydes has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Francis Ngannou has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Ngannou

Red Corner

Curtis Blaydes

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1496

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

210.82 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis NgannouW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19

KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21

vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22

latest

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis NgannouMetricCurtis Blaydes

2.33

Strikes / min

4.18

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

41%

Strike defense

53%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

5.12

71%

Takedown defense

35%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francis NgannouCurtis Blaydes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francis Ngannou(10 fights)Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis NgannouTargetCurtis Blaydes

By target zone

41% acc · 89%

Head

35% acc · 67%

50% acc · 6%

Body

50% acc · 4%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

70% acc · 29%

By position

39% acc · 86%

Distance

39% acc · 88%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

75% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francis Ngannou rounds

even

Curtis Blaydes rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:59

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Francis Ngannou edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:18

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 84

Sig Strikes

24 / 58

42%

Sig Str %

42.5%

46 / 95

Total Strikes

31 / 65

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Curtis Blaydes	13 / 25	19 / 31	1 / 3
1	Francis Ngannou	15 / 35	22 / 42	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	11 / 33	12 / 34	1 / 3
2	Francis Ngannou	21 / 49	24 / 53	0 / 0

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights14

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19