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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Francis Ngannou won · U-DEC R5

Elo1496

Elo1531

Francis NgannouvsCiryl GaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Saturday, January 22, 2022Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ciryl Gane wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ciryl Gane at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ciryl Gane has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Francis Ngannou has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Ngannou

Red Corner

Ciryl Gane

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1496

Elo

1531

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

210.82 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis NgannouW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Nov 18

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19

KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21

latest

Ciryl Gane

oldest →

SUBvs Jon Jones · Mar 23

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Sep 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24

vs Tom Aspinall · Oct 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis NgannouMetricCiryl Gane

2.33

Strikes / min

5.29

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

41%

Strike defense

60%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

0.68

71%

Takedown defense

47%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17Δ 2.79 — meaningful gap+2.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francis NgannouCiryl Gane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francis Ngannou(10 fights)Ciryl Gane(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.5|Blue +35.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis NgannouTargetCiryl Gane

By target zone

16% acc · 21%

Head

47% acc · 24%

64% acc · 49%

Body

69% acc · 32%

87% acc · 30%

Leg

93% acc · 44%

By position

39% acc · 79%

Distance

68% acc · 90%

60% acc · 14%

Clinch

86% acc · 10%

43% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francis Ngannou rounds

even

Ciryl Gane rounds

Round 1Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:40

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:13

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Francis Ngannou edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:55

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 4Francis Ngannou edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:57

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:44

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:39Control

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 104

Sig Strikes

63 / 91

42.2%

Sig Str %

70%

71 / 139

Total Strikes

79 / 107

4 / 5

TDs

1 / 3

83%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:29

Ctrl Time

2:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ciryl Gane	15 / 20	24 / 29	0 / 2	0
1	Francis Ngannou	12 / 31	14 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Ciryl Gane	19 / 33	19 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Francis Ngannou	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 0	0
3	Ciryl Gane	6 / 9	11 / 14	0 / 0	1
3	Francis Ngannou	9 / 20	19 / 30	2 / 3	0
4	Ciryl Gane	16 / 17	18 / 19	0 / 0	0
4	Francis Ngannou	7 / 13	15 / 25	2 / 2	0
5	Francis Ngannou	5 / 13	13 / 24	0 / 0	0
5	Ciryl Gane	7 / 12	7 / 12	1 / 1	2

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights14

Ciryl Gane

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights13