Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1496
Francis Ngannou
Elo1491
Cain Velasquez

Francis NgannouvsCain VelasquezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Sunday, February 17, 2019Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:26

Model Prediction: Cain Velasquez wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cain Velasquez at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Cain Velasquez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Cain Velasquez has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Francis Ngannou has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Ngannou
Red Corner
VS
Cain Velasquez
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
1496
Elo
1491
39
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'1"
210.82 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Nov 18
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19
W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21
W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22
latest
Cain Velasquez
oldest →
W
vs Junior Dos Santos · Dec 12
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13
L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 15
W
KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis NgannouMetricCain Velasquez
2.33
Strikes / min
6.37
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
2.33
41%
Strike defense
57%
0.76
TDs / 15 min
5.13
71%
Takedown defense
85%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.17Δ 3.87 — meaningful gap+4.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1565 vs 1559Strikes14.3 vs 51.3Takedowns0.0 vs 2.4Sub Atts0.22 vs 0.21Form0.2 vs 0.6
Francis NgannouCain Velasquez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Francis Ngannou(10 fights)Cain Velasquez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +4.4|Blue -4.4
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -868.0|Blue +868.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis NgannouTargetCain Velasquez

By target zone

6
60% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

3
50% acc · 50%
Distance
1
33% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 17%
Clinch
0
2
67% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Francis Ngannou rounds
0
even
0
Cain Velasquez rounds
Round 1Francis Ngannou edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 10
Sig Strikes
1 / 3
60%
Sig Str %
33%
6 / 10
Total Strikes
1 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cain Velasquez1 / 31 / 30 / 10
1Francis Ngannou6 / 106 / 100 / 00

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14

Cain Velasquez

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights9