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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1496
Francis Ngannou
Elo1362

Francis NgannouvsBojan MihajlovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:34

Model Prediction: Francis Ngannou wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Ngannou at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Bojan Mihajlovic has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Francis Ngannou has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Francis Ngannou has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Ngannou
Red Corner
VS
Bojan Mihajlovic
Blue Corner
-600
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+450
(18%)
1496
Elo
1362
39
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
5'11"
210.82 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19
W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21
W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22
latest
Bojan MihajlovicL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Joachim Christensen · Jan 17
L
KOvs Abdul-Kerim Edilov · Sep 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis NgannouMetricBojan Mihajlovic
2.33
Strikes / min
1.23
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
5.95
41%
Strike defense
47%
0.76
TDs / 15 min
0.00
71%
Takedown defense
33%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.17Δ 4.89 — meaningful gap-4.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1526 vs 1500Strikes30.5 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Francis NgannouBojan Mihajlovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Francis Ngannou(10 fights)Bojan Mihajlovic(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +134.2|Blue -134.2
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis NgannouTargetBojan Mihajlovic

By target zone

5
29% acc · 63%
Head
0
0% acc
3
100% acc · 38%
Body
1
100% acc · 33%
0
Leg
2
50% acc · 67%

By position

3
50% acc · 38%
Distance
3
50% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
5
38% acc · 63%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Francis Ngannou rounds
0
even
0
Bojan Mihajlovic rounds
Round 1Francis Ngannou edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:06
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 20
Sig Strikes
3 / 6
40%
Sig Str %
50%
9 / 21
Total Strikes
3 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:06
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Bojan Mihajlovic3 / 63 / 60 / 10
1Francis Ngannou8 / 209 / 210 / 00

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14

Bojan Mihajlovic

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3