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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Francis Ngannou won · SUB R1
Elo1496
Francis Ngannou
Elo1363

Francis NgannouvsAnthony HamiltonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · Friday, December 9, 2016Albany, New York, USA

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:57

Model Prediction: Anthony Hamilton wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hamilton at +350 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Anthony Hamilton enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Francis Ngannou has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Ngannou
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Hamilton
Blue Corner
-440
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+350
(22%)
1496
Elo
1363
39
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'5"
210.82 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19
W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21
W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22
latest
Anthony HamiltonL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Shamil Abdurakhimov · Feb 16
W
KOvs Damian Grabowski · Jul 16
L
KOvs Marcel Fortuna · Feb 17
L
KOvs Daniel Spitz · Sep 17
L
vs Adam Wieczorek · Nov 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis NgannouMetricAnthony Hamilton
2.33
Strikes / min
3.91
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
41%
Strike defense
45%
0.76
TDs / 15 min
2.62
71%
Takedown defense
78%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.17evenly matched on net striking+0.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1539 vs 1500Strikes23.0 vs 33.3Takedowns0.0 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.3
Francis NgannouAnthony Hamilton

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Francis Ngannou(10 fights)Anthony Hamilton(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +133.2|Blue -133.2
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis NgannouTargetAnthony Hamilton

By target zone

0
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 100%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

1
100% acc · 100%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Francis Ngannou rounds
0
even
1
Anthony Hamilton rounds
Round 1Anthony Hamilton edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:07
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 1
Sig Strikes
0 / 3
100%
Sig Str %
0%
1 / 1
Total Strikes
0 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:07
Ctrl Time
0:43

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Hamilton0 / 30 / 31 / 20
1Francis Ngannou1 / 11 / 10 / 01

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14

Anthony Hamilton

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights10