← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Francis Carmont won · S-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1490

Francis CarmontvsTom LawlorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Francis Carmont won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francis Carmont wins(80.9%)

Actual result: Francis Carmont wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Carmont at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francis Carmont enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francis Carmont has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).
Francis Carmont has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Carmont

Red Corner

Tom Lawlor

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1353

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis CarmontL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13

DECvs Costas Philippou · Sep 13

vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14

vs CB Dollaway · May 14

KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14

latest

Tom Lawlor

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Weidman · Nov 11

KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12

SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13

KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15

vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis CarmontMetricTom Lawlor

2.22

Strikes / min

2.50

1.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

59%

Strike defense

60%

1.79

TDs / 15 min

2.46

73%

Takedown defense

57%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.58evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francis CarmontTom Lawlor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francis Carmont(9 fights)Tom Lawlor(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.0|Blue +137.0

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -57.0|Blue +57.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis CarmontTargetTom Lawlor

By target zone

26% acc · 44%

Head

21% acc · 70%

68% acc · 44%

Body

0% acc

80% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

29% acc · 47%

Distance

26% acc · 90%

71% acc · 50%

Clinch

33% acc · 10%

25% acc · 3%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francis Carmont rounds

even

Tom Lawlor rounds

Round 1Francis Carmont edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:54

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 2Tom Lawlor edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:35

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:03

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:59Control

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 84

Sig Strikes

20 / 75

42.7%

Sig Str %

24%

44 / 94

Total Strikes

31 / 89

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 8

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

6:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Lawlor	1 / 16	3 / 20	0 / 1	1
1	Francis Carmont	10 / 17	10 / 17	0 / 1	1
2	Tom Lawlor	9 / 23	14 / 29	2 / 4	1
2	Francis Carmont	9 / 26	15 / 32	0 / 0	0
3	Tom Lawlor	10 / 36	14 / 40	0 / 3	0
3	Francis Carmont	15 / 41	19 / 45	0 / 1	0

Francis Carmont

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9

Tom Lawlor

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8