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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Thales Leites won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1353
Francis Carmont
Elo1491
Thales Leites

Francis CarmontvsThales LeitesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · Saturday, August 23, 2014Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Thales Leites won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:20

Model Prediction: Thales Leites wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Thales Leites wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thales Leites at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Carmont has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Carmont
Red Corner
VS
Thales Leites
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1353
Elo
1491
44
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
198.12 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis CarmontL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tom Lawlor · Nov 12
W
vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13
W
DECvs Costas Philippou · Sep 13
L
vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14
L
vs CB Dollaway · May 14
latest
Thales Leites
oldest →
L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16
W
vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17
L
vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17
L
KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18
W
vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis CarmontMetricThales Leites
2.22
Strikes / min
2.13
1.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
59%
Strike defense
52%
1.79
TDs / 15 min
2.10
73%
Takedown defense
30%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.58Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1559 vs 1557Strikes25.8 vs 21.7Takedowns1.6 vs 2.1Sub Atts0.63 vs 1.18Form-0.2 vs 1.0
Francis CarmontThales Leites

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Francis Carmont(9 fights)Thales Leites(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.8|Blue +137.8
Recent Form
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis CarmontTargetThales Leites

By target zone

9
23% acc · 50%
Head
11
33% acc · 61%
2
50% acc · 11%
Body
3
50% acc · 17%
7
88% acc · 39%
Leg
4
100% acc · 22%

By position

16
33% acc · 89%
Distance
12
39% acc · 67%
2
100% acc · 11%
Clinch
5
56% acc · 28%
0
Ground
1
33% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Francis Carmont rounds
0
even
1
Thales Leites rounds
Round 1Francis Carmont edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:27
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:48Control
Round 2Thales Leites edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
18 / 51
Sig Strikes
18 / 43
28%
Sig Str %
42.5%
18 / 51
Total Strikes
19 / 44
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:27
Ctrl Time
0:51

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Thales Leites10 / 2611 / 270 / 10
1Francis Carmont17 / 4617 / 460 / 10
2Thales Leites8 / 178 / 170 / 00
2Francis Carmont1 / 51 / 50 / 00

Francis Carmont

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights9

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights13