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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Francis Carmont won · SUB R2

Elo1353

Elo1491

Francis CarmontvsMagnus CedenbladUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · Saturday, April 14, 2012Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Francis Carmont won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:42

Model Prediction: Francis Carmont wins(83.8%)

Actual result: Francis Carmont wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Carmont at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francis Carmont enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francis Carmont has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Carmont

Red Corner

Magnus Cedenblad

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1353

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

198.12 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis CarmontL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13

DECvs Costas Philippou · Sep 13

vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14

vs CB Dollaway · May 14

KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14

latest

Magnus Cedenblad

oldest →

SUBvs Jared Hamman · Aug 13

SUBvs Krzysztof Jotko · May 14

vs Scott Askham · Oct 14

KOvs Garreth McLellan · May 16

KOvs Jack Marshman · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis CarmontMetricMagnus Cedenblad

2.22

Strikes / min

2.38

1.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

59%

Strike defense

40%

1.79

TDs / 15 min

2.87

73%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.58Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francis CarmontMagnus Cedenblad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francis Carmont(9 fights)Magnus Cedenblad(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.2|Blue +137.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis CarmontTargetMagnus Cedenblad

By target zone

93% acc · 96%

Head

91% acc · 91%

100% acc · 4%

Body

0% acc

Leg

50% acc · 9%

By position

67% acc · 7%

Distance

57% acc · 36%

Clinch

96% acc · 93%

Ground

100% acc · 64%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francis Carmont rounds

even

Magnus Cedenblad rounds

Round 1Magnus Cedenblad edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:09

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 2Francis Carmont edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:29

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 30

Sig Strikes

11 / 14

88%

Sig Str %

87.5%

53 / 57

Total Strikes

39 / 42

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:38

Ctrl Time

2:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Magnus Cedenblad	9 / 12	37 / 40	0 / 0	0
1	Francis Carmont	4 / 5	14 / 16	1 / 1	0
2	Magnus Cedenblad	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0	1
2	Francis Carmont	24 / 25	39 / 41	1 / 1	1

Francis Carmont

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9

Magnus Cedenblad

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6