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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Francis Carmont won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1491

Francis CarmontvsLorenz LarkinUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · Saturday, April 20, 2013San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Francis Carmont won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francis Carmont wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Francis Carmont wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Carmont at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francis Carmont enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francis Carmont has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Carmont

Red Corner

Lorenz Larkin

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1353

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis CarmontL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tom Lawlor · Nov 12

DECvs Costas Philippou · Sep 13

vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14

vs CB Dollaway · May 14

KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14

latest

Lorenz LarkinW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Howard · Jan 15

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15

vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16

vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis CarmontMetricLorenz Larkin

2.22

Strikes / min

3.53

1.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.74

59%

Strike defense

63%

1.79

TDs / 15 min

0.27

73%

Takedown defense

79%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.58evenly matched on net striking+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francis CarmontLorenz Larkin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francis Carmont(9 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.1|Blue +137.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis CarmontTargetLorenz Larkin

By target zone

14% acc · 67%

Head

24% acc · 34%

8% acc · 8%

Body

13% acc · 3%

60% acc · 25%

Leg

71% acc · 63%

By position

15% acc · 92%

Distance

34% acc · 69%

33% acc · 8%

Clinch

56% acc · 28%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francis Carmont rounds

even

Lorenz Larkin rounds

Round 1Lorenz Larkin edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control1:39

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lorenz Larkin edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:57

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Francis Carmont edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:40

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 75

Sig Strikes

32 / 82

14.7%

Sig Str %

34.3%

13 / 78

Total Strikes

36 / 88

2 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

19.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:16

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lorenz Larkin	10 / 28	11 / 30	0 / 0
1	Francis Carmont	1 / 24	1 / 25	0 / 4
2	Lorenz Larkin	19 / 39	21 / 41	0 / 0
2	Francis Carmont	8 / 35	8 / 35	1 / 4
3	Lorenz Larkin	3 / 15	4 / 17	0 / 0
3	Francis Carmont	3 / 16	4 / 18	1 / 3

Francis Carmont

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9

Lorenz Larkin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10