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Middleweight

3 Rounds

CB Dollaway won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1491

Francis CarmontvsCB DollawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

CB Dollaway won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francis Carmont wins(60.0%)

Actual result: CB Dollaway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Carmont at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Francis Carmont

Red Corner

CB Dollaway

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1353

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis CarmontL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tom Lawlor · Nov 12

vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13

DECvs Costas Philippou · Sep 13

vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14

KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14

latest

CB Dollaway

oldest →

vs Michael Bisping · Apr 15

KOvs Nate Marquardt · Dec 15

vs Ed Herman · Jul 17

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18

KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis CarmontMetricCB Dollaway

2.22

Strikes / min

2.65

1.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.58

59%

Strike defense

54%

1.79

TDs / 15 min

3.55

73%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.58evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francis CarmontCB Dollaway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francis Carmont(9 fights)CB Dollaway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.8|Blue +137.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +36.0|Blue -36.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis CarmontTargetCB Dollaway

By target zone

26% acc · 62%

Head

45% acc · 50%

46% acc · 21%

Body

56% acc · 20%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

93% acc · 30%

By position

34% acc · 97%

Distance

48% acc · 66%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 23%

Ground

56% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francis Carmont rounds

even

CB Dollaway rounds

Round 1CB Dollaway edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:34

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2CB Dollaway edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:14

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:38Control

Round 3CB Dollaway edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:38

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 86

Sig Strikes

44 / 79

35.7%

Sig Str %

52%

41 / 100

Total Strikes

64 / 109

1 / 4

TDs

3 / 4

25%

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

6:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	CB Dollaway	29 / 48	31 / 52	0 / 0	0
1	Francis Carmont	11 / 42	15 / 48	1 / 2	0
2	CB Dollaway	8 / 15	9 / 17	1 / 1	0
2	Francis Carmont	11 / 27	12 / 28	0 / 0	1
3	CB Dollaway	7 / 16	24 / 40	2 / 3	0
3	Francis Carmont	7 / 17	14 / 24	0 / 2	0

Francis Carmont

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9

CB Dollaway

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14