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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Francimar Barroso won · U-DEC R3

Elo1364

Elo1359

Francimar BarrosovsElvis MutapcicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Francimar Barroso won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancimar Barroso: WrestlervsElvis Mutapcic: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Francimar Barroso wins(77.0%)

Actual result: Francimar Barroso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francimar Barroso at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francimar Barroso has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Francimar Barroso

Red Corner

Elvis Mutapcic

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1364

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francimar BarrosoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Jimmo · May 15

SUBvs Nikita Krylov · May 16

vs Darren Stewart · Mar 17

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Sep 17

vs Gian Villante · Jan 18

latest

Elvis Mutapcic

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francimar BarrosoMetricElvis Mutapcic

2.77

Strikes / min

3.41

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

4.27

59%

Strike defense

38%

2.22

TDs / 15 min

0.00

83%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francimar BarrosoElvis Mutapcic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francimar Barroso(8 fights)Elvis Mutapcic(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.9|Blue -4.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francimar BarrosoTargetElvis Mutapcic

By target zone

49% acc · 60%

Head

22% acc · 58%

88% acc · 12%

Body

88% acc · 37%

89% acc · 28%

Leg

50% acc · 5%

By position

59% acc · 86%

Distance

25% acc · 66%

83% acc · 9%

Clinch

55% acc · 16%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

70% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francimar Barroso rounds

even

Elvis Mutapcic rounds

Round 1Francimar Barroso edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:49

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Francimar Barroso edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Francimar Barroso edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:24

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 95

Sig Strikes

38 / 120

58.7%

Sig Str %

32.7%

90 / 132

Total Strikes

65 / 148

1 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Elvis Mutapcic	10 / 26	36 / 53	0 / 0
1	Francimar Barroso	10 / 18	41 / 53	1 / 1
2	Elvis Mutapcic	10 / 32	10 / 32	0 / 0
2	Francimar Barroso	23 / 39	23 / 39	0 / 5
3	Elvis Mutapcic	18 / 62	19 / 63	0 / 0
3	Francimar Barroso	24 / 38	26 / 40	0 / 4

Francimar Barroso

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Elvis Mutapcic

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2