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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksandar Rakic won · U-DEC R3

Elo1364

Elo1471

Francimar BarrosovsAleksandar RakicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · Saturday, September 2, 2017Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Aleksandar Rakic won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancimar Barroso: WrestlervsAleksandar Rakic: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Francimar Barroso wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Aleksandar Rakic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francimar Barroso at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksandar Rakic enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Francimar Barroso

Red Corner

Aleksandar Rakic

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1364

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francimar Barroso

oldest →

vs Ryan Jimmo · May 15

vs Elvis Mutapcic · Jan 16

SUBvs Nikita Krylov · May 16

vs Darren Stewart · Mar 17

vs Gian Villante · Jan 18

latest

Aleksandar RakicL4 streak

oldest →

vs Thiago Santos · Mar 21

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · May 22

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 24

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francimar BarrosoMetricAleksandar Rakic

2.77

Strikes / min

4.13

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

59%

Strike defense

51%

2.22

TDs / 15 min

0.64

83%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francimar BarrosoAleksandar Rakic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francimar Barroso(8 fights)Aleksandar Rakic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -107.9|Blue +107.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francimar BarrosoTargetAleksandar Rakic

By target zone

36% acc · 58%

Head

19% acc · 48%

0% acc

Body

63% acc · 22%

83% acc · 42%

Leg

70% acc · 30%

By position

42% acc · 92%

Distance

31% acc · 96%

Clinch

33% acc · 4%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francimar Barroso rounds

even

Aleksandar Rakic rounds

Round 1Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:10

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control1:26

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 55

Sig Strikes

46 / 150

43.3%

Sig Str %

31%

36 / 69

Total Strikes

75 / 179

2 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:36

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksandar Rakic	11 / 34	15 / 38	0 / 0
1	Francimar Barroso	9 / 16	9 / 16	0 / 4
2	Aleksandar Rakic	20 / 54	45 / 79	0 / 0
2	Francimar Barroso	10 / 23	22 / 37	2 / 6
3	Aleksandar Rakic	15 / 62	15 / 62	0 / 0
3	Francimar Barroso	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 4

Francimar Barroso

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Aleksandar Rakic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11