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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Roberts won · S-DEC R3
Elo1351
Forrest Petz
Elo1351
Daniel Roberts

Forrest PetzvsDaniel RobertsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · Saturday, July 3, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Roberts won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Forrest Petz wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Daniel Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Forrest Petz at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daniel Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Forrest Petz has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Forrest Petz has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Roberts (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Forrest Petz
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Roberts
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
1351
Elo
1351
50
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Forrest Petz
oldest →
L
KOvs Brian Foster · Sep 10
latest
Daniel RobertsL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mike Guymon · Oct 10
W
SUBvs Greg Soto · Jan 11
L
vs Claude Patrick · Apr 11
L
vs Rich Attonito · Jun 11
L
vs Charlie Brenneman · Jan 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Forrest PetzMetricDaniel Roberts
2.27
Strikes / min
0.73
2.20
Strikes absorbed / min
2.27
57%
Strike defense
46%
1.30
TDs / 15 min
2.46
66%
Takedown defense
40%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
2.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.07Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap-1.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1482Strikes32.4 vs 7.0Takedowns1.2 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Forrest PetzDaniel Roberts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Forrest Petz(2 fights)Daniel Roberts(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Forrest PetzTargetDaniel Roberts

By target zone

6
12% acc · 29%
Head
4
10% acc · 80%
3
43% acc · 14%
Body
1
50% acc · 20%
12
100% acc · 57%
Leg
0

By position

17
29% acc · 81%
Distance
2
5% acc · 40%
3
33% acc · 14%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 20%
1
100% acc · 5%
Ground
2
50% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Forrest Petz rounds
1
even
1
Daniel Roberts rounds
Round 1Daniel Roberts edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:13
1Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:02Control
Round 2Forrest Petz edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:44
1Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:58Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:13Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
21 / 69
Sig Strikes
5 / 44
28.7%
Sig Str %
12.3%
47 / 97
Total Strikes
45 / 93
1 / 1
TDs
6 / 9
100%
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:57
Ctrl Time
7:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Roberts1 / 67 / 123 / 41
1Forrest Petz2 / 107 / 170 / 00
2Daniel Roberts1 / 97 / 172 / 41
2Forrest Petz10 / 2431 / 451 / 10
3Daniel Roberts3 / 2931 / 641 / 10
3Forrest Petz9 / 359 / 350 / 00

Forrest Petz

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2

Daniel Roberts

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7