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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Forrest Griffin won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Forrest GriffinvsTito OrtizUFC Prediction Result

UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · Saturday, July 7, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Forrest Griffin won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupForrest Griffin: Elusive strikervsTito Ortiz: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Forrest Griffin wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Forrest Griffin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Forrest Griffin at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Forrest Griffin

Red Corner

Tito Ortiz

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Forrest Griffin

oldest →

vs Rich Franklin · Feb 11

KOvs Mauricio Rua · Aug 11

latest

Tito OrtizL2 streak

oldest →

vs Matt Hamill · Oct 10

SUBvs Ryan Bader · Jul 11

KOvs Rashad Evans · Aug 11

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Dec 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Forrest GriffinMetricTito Ortiz

4.38

Strikes / min

2.59

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.88

61%

Strike defense

60%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

2.47

57%

Takedown defense

54%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.57Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Forrest GriffinTito Ortiz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Forrest Griffin(3 fights)Tito Ortiz(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.6|Blue -138.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Forrest GriffinTargetTito Ortiz

By target zone

26% acc · 64%

Head

38% acc · 96%

56% acc · 24%

Body

40% acc · 4%

55% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 95%

Distance

35% acc · 82%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

Ground

71% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Forrest Griffin rounds

even

Tito Ortiz rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 2Forrest Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:35

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Forrest Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:16

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 261

Sig Strikes

49 / 128

31.7%

Sig Str %

37.7%

104 / 280

Total Strikes

68 / 147

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tito Ortiz	17 / 44	21 / 48	2 / 3
1	Forrest Griffin	24 / 89	25 / 90	0 / 0
2	Tito Ortiz	20 / 53	22 / 55	0 / 2
2	Forrest Griffin	36 / 95	43 / 102	0 / 0
3	Tito Ortiz	12 / 31	25 / 44	1 / 1
3	Forrest Griffin	25 / 77	36 / 88	0 / 0

Forrest Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3

Tito Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5