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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1355

Clay GuidavsHatsu HiokiUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Saturday, January 26, 2013Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsHatsu Hioki: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Hatsu Hioki wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hatsu Hioki at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Hatsu Hioki

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1490

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Hatsu HiokiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 12

vs Darren Elkins · Aug 13

vs Ivan Menjivar · Mar 14

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 14

KOvs Dan Hooker · May 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricHatsu Hioki

2.63

Strikes / min

2.42

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.12

61%

Strike defense

65%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

2.55

66%

Takedown defense

54%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaHatsu Hioki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Hatsu Hioki(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.8|Blue -135.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetHatsu Hioki

By target zone

16% acc · 54%

Head

39% acc · 71%

22% acc · 8%

Body

45% acc · 22%

56% acc · 38%

Leg

60% acc · 7%

By position

22% acc · 85%

Distance

40% acc · 88%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

40% acc · 5%

30% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Hatsu Hioki rounds

Round 1Hatsu Hioki edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:09

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:58

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:27

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 112

Sig Strikes

41 / 99

21.7%

Sig Str %

39.3%

40 / 136

Total Strikes

74 / 138

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

61%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:34

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hatsu Hioki	26 / 56	31 / 61	0 / 0	0
1	Clay Guida	16 / 63	16 / 63	1 / 3	0
2	Hatsu Hioki	10 / 19	23 / 34	0 / 0	1
2	Clay Guida	6 / 28	12 / 42	1 / 1	0
3	Hatsu Hioki	5 / 24	20 / 43	0 / 0	0
3	Clay Guida	4 / 21	12 / 31	1 / 2	0

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Hatsu Hioki

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8