Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Colby Thicknesse has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Josias Musasa has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Josias Musasa (53.5%).
- Josias Musasa has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colby Thicknesse
oldest →L
vs Aleksandre Topuria · Feb 25W
DECvs Vince Morales · May 26 Josias Musasa
oldest →L
SUBvs Carlos Vera · Mar 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colby ThicknesseMetricJosias Musasa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.31Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap-1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Colby ThicknesseJosias Musasa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colby Thicknesse(3 fights)Josias Musasa(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +50.5|Blue -50.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Colby ThicknesseTargetJosias Musasa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Colby Thicknesse edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns1
Control2:43
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:11Control
Round 2Josias Musasa edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control1:56
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:37Control
Round 3Colby Thicknesse edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control3:06
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
