Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tahir Abdullayev won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1527

Elo1473

Tahir AbdullayevvsJefferson NascimentoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Saturday, June 27, 2026Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Tahir Abdullayev won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:28

Model Prediction: Tahir Abdullayev wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Tahir Abdullayev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Tahir Abdullayev

Red Corner

Jefferson Nascimento

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1527

Elo

1473

N/A

Age

N/A

Stance

N/A

Height

N/A

Reach

N/A

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +54.2|Blue -54.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tahir AbdullayevTargetJefferson Nascimento

By target zone

35% acc · 70%

Head

29% acc · 31%

80% acc · 22%

Body

73% acc · 54%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

63% acc · 14%

By position

25% acc · 38%

Distance

47% acc · 94%

67% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

73% acc · 51%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tahir Abdullayev rounds

even

Jefferson Nascimento rounds

Round 1Jefferson Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Jefferson Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tahir Abdullayev edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control3:12

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 87

Sig Strikes

35 / 72

36.7%

Sig Str %

48.7%

60 / 111

Total Strikes

54 / 100

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

16.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:12

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jefferson Nascimento	7 / 15	7 / 15	0 / 1
1	Tahir Abdullayev	5 / 20	5 / 20	0 / 1
2	Jefferson Nascimento	15 / 34	15 / 34	0 / 0
2	Tahir Abdullayev	6 / 24	6 / 24	0 / 1
3	Jefferson Nascimento	13 / 23	32 / 51	0 / 0
3	Tahir Abdullayev	26 / 43	49 / 67	2 / 4

Tahir Abdullayev

Stance—

Height—

Reach—

Fights1

Jefferson Nascimento

Stance—

Height—

Reach—

Fights1