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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Nelson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1496

Fernando PadillavsKyle NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kyle Nelson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFernando Padilla: Pressure fightervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Fernando Padilla wins(74.2%)

Actual result: Kyle Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fernando Padilla at -258 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fernando Padilla is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Fernando Padilla has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
Fernando Padilla has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Fernando Padilla

Red Corner

Kyle Nelson

Blue Corner

-258

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1497

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fernando Padilla

oldest →

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 23

SUBvs Luis Pajuelo · Mar 24

KOvs Sean Woodson · Dec 24

latest

Kyle Nelson

oldest →

vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23

KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24

KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fernando PadillaMetricKyle Nelson

6.07

Strikes / min

3.60

5.74

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

52%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.18

100%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fernando PadillaKyle Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fernando Padilla(4 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fernando PadillaTargetKyle Nelson

By target zone

25% acc · 58%

Head

30% acc · 52%

77% acc · 24%

Body

95% acc · 23%

72% acc · 18%

Leg

95% acc · 24%

By position

33% acc · 90%

Distance

45% acc · 98%

70% acc · 10%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fernando Padilla rounds

even

Kyle Nelson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:07

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 208

Sig Strikes

82 / 184

34.3%

Sig Str %

45.3%

73 / 209

Total Strikes

83 / 185

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyle Nelson	25 / 50	25 / 50	0 / 1
1	Fernando Padilla	26 / 82	26 / 82	0 / 0
2	Kyle Nelson	30 / 58	31 / 59	0 / 0
2	Fernando Padilla	22 / 59	23 / 60	0 / 1
3	Kyle Nelson	27 / 76	27 / 76	0 / 2
3	Fernando Padilla	24 / 67	24 / 67	0 / 0

Fernando Padilla

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11