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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Andre Lima won · U-DEC R3
Elo1485
Felipe dos Santos
Elo1518
Andre Lima

Felipe dos SantosvsAndre LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Saturday, September 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andre Lima won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Andre Lima wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Andre Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Lima at -166 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Andre Lima has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Andre Lima has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Felipe dos Santos
Red Corner
VS
Andre Lima
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-166
(62%)
1485
Elo
1518
25
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felipe dos Santos
oldest →
L
vs Manel Kape · Sep 23
W
vs Victor Altamirano · Feb 24
L
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Mar 25
latest
Andre Lima
oldest →
W
vs Igor Severino · Mar 24
W
vs Mitch Raposo · Jun 24
W
SUBvs Daniel Barez · Mar 25
L
DECvs Kevin Borjas · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felipe dos SantosMetricAndre Lima
3.75
Strikes / min
4.06
3.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.49
41%
Strike defense
57%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.36
20%
Takedown defense
75%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.05Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap+1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1531Strikes3.9 vs 3.0Takedowns0.0 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.30 vs 1.10Form0.2 vs 1.0
Felipe dos SantosAndre Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Felipe dos Santos(4 fights)Andre Lima(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -33.3|Blue +33.3
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felipe dos SantosTargetAndre Lima

By target zone

14
31% acc · 37%
Head
5
24% acc · 28%
14
74% acc · 37%
Body
6
86% acc · 33%
10
83% acc · 26%
Leg
7
78% acc · 39%

By position

33
49% acc · 87%
Distance
14
42% acc · 78%
5
71% acc · 13%
Clinch
4
100% acc · 22%
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Felipe dos Santos rounds
0
even
2
Andre Lima rounds
Round 1Felipe dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:41
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:47Control
Round 2Andre Lima edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:06Control
Round 3Andre Lima edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:07Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
38 / 76
Sig Strikes
18 / 37
47%
Sig Str %
49.7%
69 / 122
Total Strikes
43 / 70
0 / 8
TDs
2 / 2
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:41
Ctrl Time
9:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Andre Lima10 / 2313 / 260 / 00
1Felipe dos Santos25 / 4730 / 530 / 60
2Andre Lima6 / 920 / 301 / 10
2Felipe dos Santos8 / 1716 / 280 / 10
3Andre Lima2 / 510 / 141 / 12
3Felipe dos Santos5 / 1223 / 410 / 10

Felipe dos Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4

Andre Lima

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights5