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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Felipe Arantes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1358

Felipe ArantesvsMaximo BlancoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · Saturday, February 15, 2014Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Felipe Arantes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Felipe Arantes wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Felipe Arantes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felipe Arantes at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Arantes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Felipe Arantes threatens submissions; Maximo Blanco has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Maximo Blanco has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Felipe Arantes

Red Corner

Maximo Blanco

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1366

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felipe ArantesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Aug 15

SUBvs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 16

vs Erik Perez · Nov 16

vs Josh Emmett · Oct 17

KOvs Song Yadong · Jun 18

latest

Maximo BlancoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andy Ogle · May 14

vs Dan Hooker · Sep 14

KOvs Mike de la Torre · Jul 15

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Jan 16

SUBvs Chas Skelly · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felipe ArantesMetricMaximo Blanco

2.37

Strikes / min

4.11

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.19

64%

Strike defense

66%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

1.85

41%

Takedown defense

63%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felipe ArantesMaximo Blanco

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felipe Arantes(10 fights)Maximo Blanco(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.0|Blue -8.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +87.0|Blue -87.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felipe ArantesTargetMaximo Blanco

By target zone

33% acc · 62%

Head

22% acc · 34%

63% acc · 26%

Body

64% acc · 41%

56% acc · 13%

Leg

85% acc · 25%

By position

32% acc · 51%

Distance

40% acc · 70%

60% acc · 38%

Clinch

46% acc · 27%

44% acc · 10%

Ground

20% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felipe Arantes rounds

even

Maximo Blanco rounds

Round 1Felipe Arantes edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:36

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Maximo Blanco edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:16

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:03

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 97

Sig Strikes

44 / 108

36%

Sig Str %

40%

47 / 105

Total Strikes

73 / 140

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 6

25%

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

2:55

Ctrl Time

3:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Maximo Blanco	20 / 51	20 / 51	1 / 3	0
1	Felipe Arantes	25 / 48	26 / 49	0 / 0	1
2	Maximo Blanco	16 / 34	37 / 57	1 / 1	0
2	Felipe Arantes	8 / 28	8 / 28	0 / 1	0
3	Maximo Blanco	8 / 23	16 / 32	1 / 2	0
3	Felipe Arantes	6 / 21	13 / 28	1 / 2	0

Felipe Arantes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Maximo Blanco

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9