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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Souza won · Decision R3

Elo1366

Elo1490

Felipe ArantesvsKevin SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · Wednesday, September 4, 2013Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Kevin Souza won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Felipe Arantes wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Kevin Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felipe Arantes at -275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Arantes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Felipe Arantes

Red Corner

Kevin Souza

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1366

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felipe ArantesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Aug 15

SUBvs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 16

vs Erik Perez · Nov 16

vs Josh Emmett · Oct 17

KOvs Song Yadong · Jun 18

latest

Kevin Souza

oldest →

KOvs Mark Eddiva · May 14

KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Mar 15

SUBvs Chas Skelly · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felipe ArantesMetricKevin Souza

2.37

Strikes / min

—

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

—

64%

Strike defense

—

0.93

TDs / 15 min

—

41%

Takedown defense

—

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felipe ArantesKevin Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felipe Arantes(10 fights)Kevin Souza(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.5|Blue +124.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -48.4|Blue +48.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Felipe Arantes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Kevin Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3