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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Josh Emmett won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1461

Felipe ArantesvsJosh EmmettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · Saturday, October 21, 2017Gdansk, Poland

Official fight result

Josh Emmett won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Josh Emmett wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Emmett at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Felipe Arantes

Red Corner

Josh Emmett

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1366

Elo

1461

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felipe ArantesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Oct 14

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Aug 15

SUBvs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 16

vs Erik Perez · Nov 16

KOvs Song Yadong · Jun 18

latest

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felipe ArantesMetricJosh Emmett

2.37

Strikes / min

3.67

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

64%

Strike defense

59%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

1.07

41%

Takedown defense

43%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felipe ArantesJosh Emmett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felipe Arantes(10 fights)Josh Emmett(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -95.2|Blue +95.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felipe ArantesTargetJosh Emmett

By target zone

27% acc · 74%

Head

24% acc · 64%

56% acc · 12%

Body

74% acc · 21%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

28% acc · 67%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

46% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felipe Arantes rounds

even

Josh Emmett rounds

Round 1Josh Emmett edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:27Control

4Knockdowns

Round 2Felipe Arantes edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Josh Emmett edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 134

Sig Strikes

67 / 211

29.7%

Sig Str %

30.3%

44 / 136

Total Strikes

78 / 231

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Josh Emmett	32 / 81	43 / 101	0 / 0
1	Felipe Arantes	6 / 27	7 / 28	0 / 1
2	Josh Emmett	14 / 61	14 / 61	1 / 2
2	Felipe Arantes	23 / 55	23 / 56	0 / 0
3	Josh Emmett	21 / 69	21 / 69	0 / 0
3	Felipe Arantes	14 / 52	14 / 52	0 / 0

Felipe Arantes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17