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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Felipe Arantes won · SUB R2

Elo1366

Elo1491

Felipe ArantesvsJerrod SandersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Felipe Arantes won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:39

Model Prediction: Felipe Arantes wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Felipe Arantes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felipe Arantes at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Arantes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Felipe Arantes threatens submissions; Jerrod Sanders has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Felipe Arantes has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Felipe Arantes

Red Corner

Jerrod Sanders

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1366

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felipe ArantesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Oct 14

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Aug 15

vs Erik Perez · Nov 16

vs Josh Emmett · Oct 17

KOvs Song Yadong · Jun 18

latest

Jerrod Sanders

oldest →

KOvs Yosdenis Cedeno · Jul 14

vs Russell Doane · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felipe ArantesMetricJerrod Sanders

2.37

Strikes / min

0.88

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

1.14

64%

Strike defense

46%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

2.20

41%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felipe ArantesJerrod Sanders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felipe Arantes(10 fights)Jerrod Sanders(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.6|Blue +124.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felipe ArantesTargetJerrod Sanders

By target zone

17% acc · 33%

Head

60% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 67%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

67% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felipe Arantes rounds

even

Jerrod Sanders rounds

Round 1Jerrod Sanders edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:37

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:49Control

Round 2Jerrod Sanders edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 9

Sig Strikes

6 / 10

18.5%

Sig Str %

58%

5 / 11

Total Strikes

32 / 50

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

4:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jerrod Sanders	4 / 6	22 / 37	0 / 1	0
1	Felipe Arantes	3 / 8	4 / 9	0 / 0	0
2	Jerrod Sanders	2 / 4	10 / 13	1 / 2	0
2	Felipe Arantes	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 0	1

Felipe Arantes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Jerrod Sanders

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3