Featherweight

3 Rounds

Felipe Arantes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1490

Felipe ArantesvsAntonio CarvalhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · Saturday, January 14, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Felipe Arantes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Felipe Arantes wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Felipe Arantes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felipe Arantes at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Arantes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Antonio Carvalho has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Felipe Arantes

Red Corner

Antonio Carvalho

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1366

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felipe ArantesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Aug 15

SUBvs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 16

vs Erik Perez · Nov 16

vs Josh Emmett · Oct 17

KOvs Song Yadong · Jun 18

latest

Antonio Carvalho

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Pineda · Jul 12

vs Rodrigo Damm · Nov 12

KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felipe ArantesMetricAntonio Carvalho

2.37

Strikes / min

3.03

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

64%

Strike defense

64%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.00

41%

Takedown defense

100%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felipe ArantesAntonio Carvalho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felipe Arantes(10 fights)Antonio Carvalho(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.2|Blue +124.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felipe ArantesTargetAntonio Carvalho

By target zone

36% acc · 68%

Head

16% acc · 57%

82% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 22%

73% acc · 15%

Leg

80% acc · 22%

By position

43% acc · 89%

Distance

21% acc · 81%

40% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 11%

57% acc · 8%

Ground

43% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felipe Arantes rounds

even

Antonio Carvalho rounds

Round 1Antonio Carvalho edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Felipe Arantes edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:07

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Felipe Arantes edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control2:40

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 122

Sig Strikes

37 / 153

41.7%

Sig Str %

24.7%

72 / 144

Total Strikes

65 / 185

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:47

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Antonio Carvalho	16 / 47	24 / 57	0 / 1
1	Felipe Arantes	9 / 33	11 / 35	0 / 0
2	Antonio Carvalho	12 / 66	22 / 76	0 / 1
2	Felipe Arantes	26 / 49	26 / 50	0 / 0
3	Antonio Carvalho	9 / 40	19 / 52	0 / 1
3	Felipe Arantes	18 / 40	35 / 59	0 / 0

Felipe Arantes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Antonio Carvalho

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4