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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Andre Fili won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1479

Felipe ArantesvsAndre FiliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · Saturday, October 25, 2014Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Andre Fili won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Andre Fili wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Andre Fili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Fili at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Arantes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Felipe Arantes has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Andre Fili has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Felipe Arantes

Red Corner

Andre Fili

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1366

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felipe ArantesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Aug 15

SUBvs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 16

vs Erik Perez · Nov 16

vs Josh Emmett · Oct 17

KOvs Song Yadong · Jun 18

latest

Andre FiliL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cub Swanson · Jun 24

SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 25

vs Christian Rodriguez · Aug 25

vs Jose Delgado · Mar 26

KOvs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felipe ArantesMetricAndre Fili

2.37

Strikes / min

3.88

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

64%

Strike defense

50%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

2.32

41%

Takedown defense

71%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felipe ArantesAndre Fili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felipe Arantes(10 fights)Andre Fili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -113.3|Blue +113.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felipe ArantesTargetAndre Fili

By target zone

47% acc · 86%

Head

30% acc · 50%

33% acc · 10%

Body

74% acc · 48%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

17% acc · 2%

By position

38% acc · 45%

Distance

31% acc · 40%

0% acc

Clinch

80% acc · 29%

62% acc · 55%

Ground

39% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felipe Arantes rounds

even

Andre Fili rounds

Round 1Andre Fili edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:58

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:07Control

Round 2Andre Fili edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:04

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 3Andre Fili edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:12

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 63

Sig Strikes

42 / 102

49.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

43 / 78

Total Strikes

66 / 135

3 / 5

TDs

5 / 8

77.7%

TD %

66.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:14

Ctrl Time

6:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andre Fili	24 / 62	29 / 70	2 / 3	0
1	Felipe Arantes	13 / 34	14 / 35	1 / 1	0
2	Andre Fili	7 / 20	14 / 33	2 / 2	0
2	Felipe Arantes	8 / 15	14 / 22	1 / 3	0
3	Andre Fili	11 / 20	23 / 32	1 / 3	1
3	Felipe Arantes	8 / 14	15 / 21	1 / 1	1

Felipe Arantes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Andre Fili

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights26