← All fights/Event page

Women's Featherweight

3 Rounds

Felicia Spencer won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1494

Felicia SpencervsLeah LetsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Felicia Spencer won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:25

Model Prediction: Leah Letson wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Felicia Spencer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leah Letson at +280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leah Letson has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Leah Letson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Felicia Spencer

Red Corner

Leah Letson

Blue Corner

-365

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1494

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felicia SpencerL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Megan Anderson · May 19

DECvs Cris Cyborg · Jul 19

KOvs Zarah Fairn · Feb 20

vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 20

vs Norma Dumont · May 21

latest

Leah Letson

oldest →

vs Julija Stoliarenko · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felicia SpencerMetricLeah Letson

3.21

Strikes / min

3.06

4.54

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

45%

Strike defense

52%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

0.51

27%

Takedown defense

76%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.33evenly matched on net striking-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felicia SpencerLeah Letson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felicia Spencer(6 fights)Leah Letson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -904.0|Blue +904.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felicia SpencerTargetLeah Letson

By target zone

68% acc · 79%

Head

37% acc · 59%

92% acc · 21%

Body

75% acc · 35%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

29% acc · 9%

Distance

45% acc · 76%

87% acc · 70%

Clinch

57% acc · 24%

75% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felicia Spencer rounds

even

Leah Letson rounds

Round 1Felicia Spencer edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control4:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Felicia Spencer edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns3

Control4:21

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Felicia Spencer edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control3:15

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 78

Sig Strikes

17 / 36

72%

Sig Str %

49.3%

227 / 275

Total Strikes

69 / 90

4 / 13

TDs

1 / 1

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

11:58

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Leah Letson	6 / 13	28 / 36	0 / 0
1	Felicia Spencer	17 / 29	75 / 95	0 / 3
2	Leah Letson	5 / 8	16 / 19	0 / 0
2	Felicia Spencer	11 / 14	71 / 77	3 / 6
3	Leah Letson	6 / 15	25 / 35	1 / 1
3	Felicia Spencer	28 / 35	81 / 103	1 / 4

Felicia Spencer

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Leah Letson

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2