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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Paige VanZant won · U-DEC R3
Elo1426
Felice Herrig
Elo1492
Paige VanZant

Felice HerrigvsPaige VanZantUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · Saturday, April 18, 2015Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Paige VanZant won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFelice Herrig: Well-roundedvsPaige VanZant: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Paige VanZant wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Paige VanZant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paige VanZant at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Felice Herrig threatens submissions; Paige VanZant has lost 75% of fights by sub.
  • Paige VanZant threatens submissions; Felice Herrig has lost 40% of fights by sub.
  • Felice Herrig has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Felice Herrig
Red Corner
VS
Paige VanZant
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1426
Elo
1492
41
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'4"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felice HerrigL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Cortney Casey · Dec 17
L
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Apr 18
L
vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 18
L
SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Aug 20
L
SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jun 22
latest
Paige VanZant
oldest →
W
KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16
L
SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16
L
vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18
W
SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19
L
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felice HerrigMetricPaige VanZant
3.84
Strikes / min
3.35
5.19
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
48%
Strike defense
42%
1.08
TDs / 15 min
1.27
75%
Takedown defense
34%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.35Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1516Strikes8.0 vs 61.0Takedowns1.0 vs 3.0Sub Atts3.00 vs 3.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Felice HerrigPaige VanZant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Felice Herrig(10 fights)Paige VanZant(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -66.0|Blue +66.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -20.0|Blue +20.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felice HerrigTargetPaige VanZant

By target zone

12
50% acc · 43%
Head
45
67% acc · 67%
14
70% acc · 50%
Body
14
82% acc · 21%
2
67% acc · 7%
Leg
8
100% acc · 12%

By position

8
40% acc · 29%
Distance
8
53% acc · 12%
18
75% acc · 64%
Clinch
22
81% acc · 33%
2
67% acc · 7%
Ground
37
74% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Felice Herrig rounds
0
even
3
Paige VanZant rounds
Round 1Paige VanZant edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control1:42
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:24Control
Round 2Paige VanZant edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:42
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:43Control
Round 3Paige VanZant edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:19
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:27Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
28 / 47
Sig Strikes
67 / 92
49%
Sig Str %
71.3%
44 / 67
Total Strikes
199 / 241
0 / 4
TDs
2 / 5
0%
TD %
33.3%
1
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
2
2:43
Ctrl Time
10:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Paige VanZant21 / 2945 / 531 / 20
1Felice Herrig16 / 2421 / 310 / 21
2Paige VanZant16 / 2860 / 740 / 10
2Felice Herrig11 / 1817 / 250 / 20
3Paige VanZant30 / 3594 / 1141 / 20
3Felice Herrig1 / 56 / 110 / 00

Felice Herrig

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights10

Paige VanZant

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights9