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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Felice Herrig won · SUB R2

Elo1426

Elo1355

Felice HerrigvsLisa EllisUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · Friday, December 12, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Felice Herrig won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:05

Style matchupFelice Herrig: Well-roundedvsLisa Ellis: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Lisa Ellis wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Felice Herrig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lisa Ellis at +285 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Felice Herrig threatens submissions; Lisa Ellis has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Felice Herrig has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Felice Herrig

Red Corner

Lisa Ellis

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1426

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felice HerrigL4 streak

oldest →

vs Cortney Casey · Dec 17

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Apr 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 18

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Aug 20

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jun 22

latest

Lisa Ellis

oldest →

SUBvs Bec Rawlings · May 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felice HerrigMetricLisa Ellis

3.84

Strikes / min

1.68

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

48%

Strike defense

57%

1.08

TDs / 15 min

4.19

75%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.35evenly matched on net striking-0.64

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felice Herrig(10 fights)Lisa Ellis(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +71.8|Blue -71.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felice HerrigTargetLisa Ellis

By target zone

62% acc · 100%

Head

75% acc · 75%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

17% acc · 13%

Distance

50% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

88% acc · 88%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felice Herrig rounds

even

Lisa Ellis rounds

Round 1Felice Herrig edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:59

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Felice Herrig edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:57

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 14

Sig Strikes

4 / 5

57%

Sig Str %

87.5%

48 / 64

Total Strikes

7 / 10

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

100%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

4:56

Ctrl Time

2:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lisa Ellis	3 / 4	6 / 9	1 / 1	1
1	Felice Herrig	4 / 7	27 / 34	1 / 1	2
2	Lisa Ellis	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 2	0
2	Felice Herrig	4 / 7	21 / 30	0 / 0	1

Felice Herrig

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights10

Lisa Ellis

Stance—

Height64.0"

Reach—

Fights2