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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won · SUB R2

Elo1426

Elo1483

Felice HerrigvsKarolina KowalkiewiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, June 4, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:01

Style matchupFelice Herrig: Well-roundedvsKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karolina Kowalkiewicz at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felice Herrig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Felice Herrig

Red Corner

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1426

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felice HerrigL3 streak

oldest →

vs Justine Kish · Jun 17

vs Cortney Casey · Dec 17

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Apr 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 18

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Aug 20

latest

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felice HerrigMetricKarolina Kowalkiewicz

3.84

Strikes / min

5.54

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

5.77

48%

Strike defense

56%

1.08

TDs / 15 min

0.36

75%

Takedown defense

74%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.35Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felice HerrigKarolina Kowalkiewicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felice Herrig(10 fights)Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.0|Blue +57.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +357.0|Blue -357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felice HerrigTargetKarolina Kowalkiewicz

By target zone

37% acc · 62%

Head

57% acc · 66%

71% acc · 36%

Body

96% acc · 28%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

42% acc · 89%

Distance

59% acc · 70%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

94% acc · 21%

Ground

89% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felice Herrig rounds

even

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

Round 1Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:01

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 2Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 122

Sig Strikes

82 / 123

46%

Sig Str %

66%

59 / 126

Total Strikes

102 / 146

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

3:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	48 / 70	50 / 72	0 / 2	0
1	Felice Herrig	30 / 73	34 / 77	0 / 1	0
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	34 / 53	52 / 74	0 / 0	2
2	Felice Herrig	25 / 49	25 / 49	0 / 1	0

Felice Herrig

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights10

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19