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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Felice Herrig won · SUB R1

Elo1426

Elo1363

Felice HerrigvsKailin CurranUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Felice Herrig won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:59

Style matchupFelice Herrig: Well-roundedvsKailin Curran: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Felice Herrig wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Felice Herrig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felice Herrig at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Kailin Curran enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Felice Herrig threatens submissions; Kailin Curran has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Kailin Curran threatens submissions; Felice Herrig has lost 40% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Felice Herrig

Red Corner

Kailin Curran

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1426

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felice HerrigL4 streak

oldest →

vs Cortney Casey · Dec 17

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Apr 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 18

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Aug 20

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jun 22

latest

Kailin CurranL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Chambers · May 15

SUBvs Emily Peters Kagan · Dec 15

vs Jamie Moyle · Dec 16

DECvs Alexandra Albu · Jul 17

DECvs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felice HerrigMetricKailin Curran

3.84

Strikes / min

3.89

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

4.75

48%

Strike defense

53%

1.08

TDs / 15 min

2.00

75%

Takedown defense

61%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.35evenly matched on net striking-0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felice HerrigKailin Curran

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felice Herrig(10 fights)Kailin Curran(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +63.7|Blue -63.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +236.0|Blue -236.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felice HerrigTargetKailin Curran

By target zone

26% acc · 38%

Head

25% acc · 80%

71% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 20%

75% acc · 23%

Leg

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felice Herrig rounds

even

Kailin Curran rounds

Round 1Felice Herrig edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 30

Sig Strikes

5 / 17

43%

Sig Str %

29%

15 / 32

Total Strikes

7 / 19

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kailin Curran	5 / 17	7 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Felice Herrig	13 / 30	15 / 32	1 / 1	1

Felice Herrig

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights10

Kailin Curran

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7