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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Felice Herrig won · U-DEC R3

Elo1426

Elo1399

Felice HerrigvsJustine KishUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · Sunday, June 25, 2017Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Felice Herrig won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFelice Herrig: Well-roundedvsJustine Kish: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Justine Kish wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Felice Herrig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justine Kish at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Felice Herrig has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Felice Herrig

Red Corner

Justine Kish

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1426

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felice HerrigL4 streak

oldest →

vs Cortney Casey · Dec 17

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Apr 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 18

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Aug 20

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jun 22

latest

Justine KishL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ashley Yoder · Dec 16

vs Ji Yeon Kim · Jan 18

DECvs Luci Pudilova · Jan 20

SUBvs Sabina Mazo · Sep 20

vs Tracy Cortez · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felice HerrigMetricJustine Kish

3.84

Strikes / min

4.51

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

48%

Strike defense

57%

1.08

TDs / 15 min

0.87

75%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.35Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felice HerrigJustine Kish

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felice Herrig(10 fights)Justine Kish(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.3|Blue -27.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -57.0|Blue +57.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felice HerrigTargetJustine Kish

By target zone

47% acc · 85%

Head

49% acc · 70%

100% acc · 15%

Body

80% acc · 20%

Leg

80% acc · 10%

By position

38% acc · 51%

Distance

48% acc · 70%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

83% acc · 13%

79% acc · 47%

Ground

88% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felice Herrig rounds

even

Justine Kish rounds

Round 1Felice Herrig edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control3:10

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Justine Kish edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:35

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Felice Herrig edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control4:39

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 93

Sig Strikes

40 / 72

54.7%

Sig Str %

56.3%

131 / 182

Total Strikes

50 / 84

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:24

Ctrl Time

1:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justine Kish	8 / 13	8 / 13	0 / 2	0
1	Felice Herrig	10 / 17	32 / 40	0 / 3	0
2	Justine Kish	26 / 48	35 / 59	0 / 0	0
2	Felice Herrig	16 / 47	23 / 55	1 / 1	0
3	Justine Kish	6 / 11	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
3	Felice Herrig	21 / 29	76 / 87	1 / 1	1

Felice Herrig

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights10

Justine Kish

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7