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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Felice Herrig won · S-DEC R3

Elo1426

Elo1495

Felice HerrigvsCortney CaseyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Saturday, December 2, 2017Detroit, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Felice Herrig won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFelice Herrig: Well-roundedvsCortney Casey: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Felice Herrig wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Felice Herrig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felice Herrig at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Felice Herrig has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Felice Herrig

Red Corner

Cortney Casey

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1426

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felice HerrigL4 streak

oldest →

vs Justine Kish · Jun 17

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Apr 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 18

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Aug 20

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jun 22

latest

Cortney Casey

oldest →

SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21

vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21

vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felice HerrigMetricCortney Casey

3.84

Strikes / min

4.29

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

4.00

48%

Strike defense

55%

1.08

TDs / 15 min

0.39

75%

Takedown defense

39%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.35Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felice HerrigCortney Casey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felice Herrig(10 fights)Cortney Casey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -68.5|Blue +68.5

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -43.0|Blue +43.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felice HerrigTargetCortney Casey

By target zone

21% acc · 62%

Head

33% acc · 75%

69% acc · 14%

Body

75% acc · 3%

67% acc · 24%

Leg

95% acc · 22%

By position

29% acc · 99%

Distance

39% acc · 99%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

33% acc · 1%

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felice Herrig rounds

even

Cortney Casey rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:33

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:02

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 262

Sig Strikes

91 / 233

29%

Sig Str %

39%

82 / 268

Total Strikes

92 / 234

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cortney Casey	29 / 66	30 / 67	0 / 0
1	Felice Herrig	22 / 68	27 / 73	1 / 2
2	Cortney Casey	31 / 94	31 / 94	0 / 0
2	Felice Herrig	29 / 96	30 / 97	0 / 0
3	Cortney Casey	31 / 73	31 / 73	0 / 0
3	Felice Herrig	25 / 98	25 / 98	0 / 0

Felice Herrig

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights10

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15