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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Gable Steveson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1527

Elo1454

Gable StevesonvsElisha EllisonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Gable Steveson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:31

Model Prediction: Gable Steveson wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Gable Steveson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gable Steveson at -1717 American odds

+$6 profit

$106 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gable Steveson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Elisha Ellison has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Elisha Ellison has 40pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Gable Steveson

Red Corner

Elisha Ellison

Blue Corner

-1717

(94%)

Vegas Odds

+921

(10%)

1527

Elo

1454

Age

N/A

Stance

Orthodox

N/A

Height

6'0"

N/A

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gable StevesonNo prior UFC fights on record.

Elisha Ellison

oldest →

KOvs Brando Pericic · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gable StevesonMetricElisha Ellison

0.00

Strikes / min

1.57

0.00

Strikes absorbed / min

15.13

Strike defense

40%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00Δ 13.56 — meaningful gap-13.56

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gable Steveson(1 fights)Elisha Ellison(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +72.1|Blue -72.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gable StevesonTargetElisha Ellison

By target zone

64% acc · 61%

Head

33% acc · 77%

86% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 23%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

70% acc · 68%

Distance

32% acc · 69%

75% acc · 29%

Clinch

80% acc · 31%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gable Steveson rounds

even

Elisha Ellison rounds

Round 1Gable Steveson edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 57

Sig Strikes

13 / 33

71%

Sig Str %

39%

41 / 57

Total Strikes

14 / 34

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Elisha Ellison	13 / 33	14 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Gable Steveson	41 / 57	41 / 57	0 / 1	0

Gable Steveson

Stance—

Height—

Reach—

Fights1

Elisha Ellison

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights2