← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Felder won · S-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1392

Edson BarbozavsPaul FelderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Saturday, September 7, 2019Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Paul Felder won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsPaul Felder: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Paul Felder wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Paul Felder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Felder at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Paul Felder

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1480

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 17

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricPaul Felder

4.14

Strikes / min

3.70

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

55%

Strike defense

48%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.29

73%

Takedown defense

64%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaPaul Felder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.1|Blue -88.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -41.0|Blue +41.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetPaul Felder

By target zone

36% acc · 45%

Head

30% acc · 73%

79% acc · 32%

Body

90% acc · 16%

88% acc · 23%

Leg

86% acc · 11%

By position

50% acc · 92%

Distance

35% acc · 91%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

67% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Paul Felder rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:29

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:21

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 114

Sig Strikes

56 / 154

54%

Sig Str %

36%

77 / 133

Total Strikes

75 / 174

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

2:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Felder	13 / 51	16 / 54	0 / 0
1	Edson Barboza	24 / 54	24 / 54	0 / 0
2	Paul Felder	20 / 46	31 / 57	0 / 2
2	Edson Barboza	21 / 34	37 / 52	1 / 1
3	Paul Felder	23 / 57	28 / 63	0 / 0
3	Edson Barboza	15 / 26	16 / 27	0 / 2

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15