Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cub SwansonW2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22W
vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26 Tatsuya Kawajiri
oldest →W
SUBvs Sean Soriano · Jan 14W
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 15W
vs Jason Knight · Dec 15L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Feb 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cub SwansonMetricTatsuya Kawajiri
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Cub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cub Swanson(10 fights)Tatsuya Kawajiri(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +158.3|Blue -158.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -55.0|Blue +55.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Cub SwansonTargetTatsuya Kawajiri
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tatsuya Kawajiri edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:29Control
Round 2Cub Swanson edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:42
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 3Cub Swanson edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns1
Control1:18
4Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
