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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1367

Elo1456

Jake EllenbergervsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:05

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jake Ellenberger has lost 70% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1367

Elo

1456

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tarec Saffiedine · Jan 16

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricJorge Masvidal

2.47

Strikes / min

4.05

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

60%

Strike defense

64%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

1.38

86%

Takedown defense

72%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -89.1|Blue +89.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

29% acc · 64%

Head

65% acc · 59%

50% acc · 9%

Body

75% acc · 20%

60% acc · 27%

Leg

82% acc · 20%

By position

35% acc · 82%

Distance

67% acc · 59%

40% acc · 18%

Clinch

71% acc · 27%

Ground

86% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:03

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 31

Sig Strikes

44 / 63

35%

Sig Str %

69%

11 / 31

Total Strikes

50 / 70

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jorge Masvidal	44 / 63	50 / 70	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Ellenberger	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 1	0

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22