Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Al Iaquinta enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Al Iaquinta has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Kevin Lee has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kevin LeeL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23 Al IaquintaL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Diego Sanchez · Apr 17L
vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18L
vs Donald Cerrone · May 19L
KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kevin LeeMetricAl Iaquinta
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.47
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kevin LeeAl Iaquinta
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kevin Lee(10 fights)Al Iaquinta(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +54.9|Blue -54.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kevin LeeTargetAl Iaquinta
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kevin Lee edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Kevin Lee edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns1
Control1:44
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Kevin Lee edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns2
Control2:29
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Al Iaquinta edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Al Iaquinta edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control1:14
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
