Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Renato Moicano threatens submissions; Cub Swanson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cub SwansonW2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22W
vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26 Renato Moicano
oldest →W
KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25L
vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25W
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cub SwansonMetricRenato Moicano
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Cub SwansonRenato Moicano
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cub Swanson(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -6.7|Blue +6.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Cub SwansonTargetRenato Moicano
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Renato Moicano edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:21Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
