Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Thiago Santos has lost 30% of fights by sub.
- Thiago Santos has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22 Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24L
vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25L
SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25L
DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago SantosMetricGerald Meerschaert
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.15Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago SantosGerald Meerschaert
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Santos(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -24.4|Blue +24.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago SantosTargetGerald Meerschaert
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Gerald Meerschaert rounds
Round 1Thiago Santos edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:36
15Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:01Control
Round 2Thiago Santos edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control1:37
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
