Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nick DiazL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Carlos Condit · Feb 12L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 13 Robbie Lawler
oldest →L
SUBvs Ben Askren · Mar 19L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nick DiazMetricRobbie Lawler
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.87Δ 2.69 — meaningful gap-0.82
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nick DiazRobbie Lawler
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nick Diaz(4 fights)Robbie Lawler(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -90.9|Blue +90.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +2723.0|Blue -2723.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nick DiazTargetRobbie Lawler
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Nick Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes71
Takedowns0
Control0:00
57Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Nick Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes73
Takedowns0
Control0:00
64Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Robbie Lawler edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
