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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Spann won · KO/TKO

Elo1437

Elo1519

Misha CirkunovvsRyan SpannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Saturday, March 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Spann won

KO/TKO

Style matchupMisha Cirkunov: WrestlervsRyan Spann: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Spann at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Misha Cirkunov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Misha Cirkunov threatens submissions; Ryan Spann has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Misha Cirkunov has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Misha Cirkunov has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Misha Cirkunov

Red Corner

Ryan Spann

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1437

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Misha CirkunovL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Mar 19

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 19

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 21

SUBvs Wellington Turman · Feb 22

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Oct 22

latest

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Misha CirkunovMetricRyan Spann

3.86

Strikes / min

3.11

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

57%

Strike defense

43%

4.15

TDs / 15 min

1.21

76%

Takedown defense

59%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Misha CirkunovRyan Spann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Misha Cirkunov(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -81.7|Blue +81.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +371.0|Blue -371.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Misha CirkunovTargetRyan Spann

By target zone

28% acc · 100%

Head

52% acc · 88%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

28% acc · 100%

Distance

31% acc · 25%

Clinch

Ground

75% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Misha Cirkunov rounds

even

Ryan Spann rounds

Round 1Ryan Spann edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 18

Sig Strikes

16 / 29

27%

Sig Str %

55%

5 / 18

Total Strikes

16 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Spann	16 / 29	16 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Misha Cirkunov	5 / 18	5 / 18	0 / 0	0

Misha Cirkunov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17