Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Lawlor has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Patrick CoteL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17 Tom Lawlor
oldest →W
KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12L
vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12W
SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13W
KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15L
vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Patrick CoteMetricTom Lawlor
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Patrick CoteTom Lawlor
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Patrick Cote(10 fights)Tom Lawlor(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -130.6|Blue +130.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Patrick CoteTargetTom Lawlor
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tom Lawlor edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:08
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:42Control
Round 2Tom Lawlor edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:38Control
Round 3Tom Lawlor edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:39Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
