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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Vitor Belfort won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Vitor Belfort
Elo1491
Dan Henderson

Vitor BelfortvsDan HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · Saturday, November 7, 2015Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Vitor Belfort won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:07

Model Prediction: Vitor Belfort wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Vitor Belfort wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Belfort at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dan Henderson is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Vitor Belfort has lost 83% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Vitor Belfort (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Belfort
Red Corner
VS
Dan Henderson
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
1491
Elo
1491
49
Age
55
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor Belfort
oldest →
L
KOvs Chris Weidman · May 15
L
KOvs Jacare Souza · May 16
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Oct 16
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Jun 17
L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · May 18
latest
Dan Henderson
oldest →
L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 14
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15
W
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15
W
KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16
L
vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor BelfortMetricDan Henderson
1.59
Strikes / min
2.44
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
50%
Strike defense
51%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
1.52
53%
Takedown defense
57%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1546 vs 1481Strikes11.0 vs 28.6Takedowns0.3 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.33Form-0.3 vs 0.0
Vitor BelfortDan Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Vitor Belfort(10 fights)Dan Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor BelfortTargetDan Henderson

By target zone

5
50% acc · 83%
Head
0
1
100% acc · 17%
Body
0
0
Leg
3
100% acc · 100%

By position

1
100% acc · 17%
Distance
3
100% acc · 100%
2
67% acc · 33%
Clinch
0
3
43% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Vitor Belfort rounds
0
even
0
Dan Henderson rounds
Round 1Vitor Belfort edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:07
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
6 / 11
Sig Strikes
3 / 3
54%
Sig Str %
100%
6 / 11
Total Strikes
3 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:07
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dan Henderson3 / 33 / 30 / 00
1Vitor Belfort6 / 116 / 110 / 00

Vitor Belfort

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13

Dan Henderson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights11