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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joaquim Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1507

Clay GuidavsJoaquim SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Saturday, December 2, 2023Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Joaquim Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsJoaquim Silva: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Joaquim Silva wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Joaquim Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joaquim Silva at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Joaquim Silva (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Joaquim Silva

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-325

(76%)

1490

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Leonardo Santos · Dec 21

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Joaquim Silva

oldest →

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Jun 21

KOvs Jesse Ronson · Oct 22

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Jun 23

vs Drakkar Klose · May 24

vs Claudio Puelles · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricJoaquim Silva

2.63

Strikes / min

3.43

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

61%

Strike defense

53%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

0.34

66%

Takedown defense

70%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaJoaquim Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Joaquim Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.3|Blue +16.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetJoaquim Silva

By target zone

18% acc · 44%

Head

46% acc · 72%

70% acc · 33%

Body

60% acc · 20%

91% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

28% acc · 84%

Distance

44% acc · 61%

100% acc · 16%

Clinch

79% acc · 33%

Ground

38% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Joaquim Silva rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:29

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control3:19

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Joaquim Silva edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:35

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 134

Sig Strikes

46 / 91

33%

Sig Str %

54%

63 / 155

Total Strikes

85 / 141

2 / 11

TDs

2 / 3

9.3%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

4:23

Ctrl Time

2:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joaquim Silva	15 / 32	40 / 65	0 / 0	0
1	Clay Guida	18 / 64	19 / 66	0 / 3	0
2	Joaquim Silva	15 / 20	26 / 34	1 / 1	1
2	Clay Guida	14 / 33	29 / 48	2 / 7	0
3	Joaquim Silva	16 / 39	19 / 42	1 / 2	1
3	Clay Guida	11 / 37	15 / 41	0 / 1	0

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Joaquim Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12