Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Merab Dvalishvili has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Casey KenneyL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Louis Smolka · May 20W
vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20W
vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20L
vs Dominick Cruz · Mar 21 Merab Dvalishvili
oldest →W
vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24W
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25W
SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Casey KenneyMetricMerab Dvalishvili
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.18Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap+1.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Casey KenneyMerab Dvalishvili
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Casey Kenney(8 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -136.5|Blue +136.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.2|Blue +2.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Casey KenneyTargetMerab Dvalishvili
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
3
Merab Dvalishvili rounds
Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:02
19Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
1:11Control
Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
1:57Control
Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:03
20Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
2:34Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
